In an increasingly uncertain and fast-evolving world, GTC is pleased to share its 2026 review of the global geopolitical and economic environment, highlighting the key trends shaping markets and the strategic considerations relevant to international families and wealth planning for UHNWI.
- Reordering of Global Influence
Major economies continue to redefine their strategic priorities, with geopolitical competition increasingly centred on technology, energy security and supply-chain resilience. The resulting multipolar landscape brings greater volatility but also targeted opportunities for investors able to diversify across jurisdictions and structure their assets prudently. In this environment, GTC’s expertise in cross-border structuring and long-term estate planning provides clients with the clarity and stability needed to navigate these shifting global dynamics.
US Tariff Policy and Its Global Consequences
The power imbalance between major blocs has accelerated renegotiations of trade agreements and reshaped international relations. The United States has reinforced its protectionist stance, raising tariffs on key industrial inputs, advanced manufacturing components, and critical technologies. These measures, combined with the Inflation Reduction Act and broader industrial-policy incentives, have encouraged a wave of foreign direct investment into the US.
A notable example is Switzerland’s 2025 bilateral investment package, which included commitments of CHF 3.8 billion in new industrial and technological projects across several US states. Swiss multinationals in precision engineering, pharmaceuticals, and advanced materials have expanded operations to maintain market access and benefit from US incentives. This illustrates how tariff-driven policies are reshaping capital flows and growing the industrial footprint of foreign partners within the US.
2. Economic Outlook — Key Signals for 2026
AI Sector: Revenue Growth Matching Market Capitalisation
Despite concerns of an AI-driven equity bubble, revenue growth among leading US AI-exposed companies remains extremely strong. Sector analyses show that many firms in cloud infrastructure, semiconductor design, and enterprise AI services recorded year-on-year revenue increases of 20–35%, broadly mirroring the pace of their market-capitalisation expansion. While valuations remain elevated, fundamentals continue to support long-term interest in the sector—provided portfolio exposure is balanced and risk-managed.
USD Depreciation and the Case for Diversification
Most 2026 currency forecasts anticipate a gradual weakening of the US dollar, driven by moderating interest-rate differentials and capital rotation toward Europe and Asia. A softer USD may reduce the real returns of USD-denominated assets when converted into other currencies. For globally exposed families, multi-currency portfolios, real assets, and well-structured cross-border vehicles provide a necessary hedge against currency-specific concentration risk.
Gold Allocation
In the current macroeconomic environment, gold remains a stabilising element within diversified portfolios. Most of the major international and private banks with which GTC works continue to recommend a 3–5% strategic allocation to gold, reflecting its role as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, inflation pressures and currency volatility. This allocation range provides a prudent counterweight to risk assets while supporting long-term wealth preservation.
- Switzerland and GTC: Strategic Anchors in a Volatile World
Switzerland retains its position as a global safe haven thanks to political stability, a resilient currency and rigorous yet predictable regulation. These attributes are particularly valuable when geopolitical tensions and currency volatility are reshaping global investment patterns.
Geneva Trust Company (GTC) SA leverages these Swiss strengths to deliver:
- Robust and compliant wealth structures (trusts, foundations, cross-border estate planning).
- Multi-jurisdictional diversification, mitigating geopolitical, regulatory and currency risks.
- Intergenerational governance frameworks protecting long-term family wealth.
- Proactive strategic advisory grounded in continuous monitoring of global macro-economic and geopolitical trends.
In this environment, thoughtful structuring is not merely advantageous, it is essential to preserving stability, flexibility and long-term value.
